Maryam Al Harbi and Maha Al Sabbagh
Article publication date: 2020-06-01
Vol. 38 No. 2 (yearly), pp. 126-148.
LEAP, climate change, renewable energy, energy efficiency, household energy survey.
This study examined the effectiveness of selected measures for reducing the final electricity demand of Al-Qassim’s residential sector and the resulting CO2 emissions. Accordingly, the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) was used to develop reference and mitigation scenarios for the period 2018–2030 based on the results of the national household energy survey. Several mitigation measures were explored, including improving the efficiency of air conditioners, installing residential solar panels, using solar water heaters, and raising public awareness regarding electricity conservation, both as stand-alone and combined mitigation scenarios. An analysis of the results of the household energy survey revealed the continuing projected rise in the final electricity demand, reaching 12.4 thousand GWh by 2030, with CO2 emissions exceeding 7.4 million tons. The results of probabilistic modeling using the survey results indicated that by 2030, the final electricity demand of the residential sector in Al-Qassim will range between 6.5 and 19.5 thousand GWh at a confidence rate of 90%, with minimum and maximum demands of 4.8 and 32.8 thousand GWh, respectively. The study’s findings also suggest that implementing the mitigation options on stand-alone basis can achieve 15% cumulative reduction in the final electricity demand and CO2 emissions, and 19% when implemented as combined scenarios during 2022-2030 compared with the reference scenario. This study recommends conducting a feasibility study for implementing these mitigation measures and exploring different financing models. A further recommendation is to collect additional data on electricity consumption patterns within the residential sector during the household energy survey’s implementation, to ensure the provision of inputs into the assessment of energy and climate change policies targeting the residential sector.